台積電美國與德州投資情境分析
TSMC US and Texas Investment Scenario Analysis
5,000億美元口徑下的受惠者 資金責任 利害關係與產業發展
Beneficiaries, Funding Responsibilities, Stakeholder Interests and Industry Development under a USD 500 Billion Scenario
中英對照版 資料截止日 2026年10月10日 金額除另註外均為美元
Chinese–English Edition | Information cut-off: October 10, 2026 | All monetary amounts are in US dollars unless stated otherwise
一 核心結論與分析範圍
1 Executive Findings and Scope
截至資料截止日，台積電已公布的美國投資計畫規模為2,650億美元，主要位於亞利桑那州。德州第二園區仍屬媒體報導的評估案；川普所稱5,000億美元，尚不能視為台積電已核定的德州預算。[1–4]
As of the cut-off date, TSMC has announced a USD 265 billion US investment program, principally in Arizona. A second campus in Texas remains a reported proposal under evaluation. President Trump’s USD 500 billion statement does not establish an approved TSMC budget for Texas. [1–4]
本報告以全美累計投資可能提高至5,000億美元為主情境，新增差額為2,350億美元。德州單獨新增5,000億美元僅作壓力情境，未視為已確認承諾。已公布計畫、實際支出、政府補助、信用保證與下游產值分別處理。
The primary scenario is a potential increase in total US investment to USD 500 billion, implying USD 235 billion above the announced program. A separate USD 500 billion Texas investment is treated only as a stress scenario. Announced commitments, actual expenditure, subsidies, guarantees and downstream production value are assessed separately.
利益與風險分配不平均。工程與設備商較早取得收入，美國取得製造產能與就業；台積電先承擔資本支出，股東須等待良率、利用率與現金流達標，才能確認投資回報。
Benefits and risks are unevenly distributed. Contractors and equipment vendors can earn revenue earlier, while the United States gains manufacturing capacity and jobs. TSMC bears upfront capital expenditure; shareholders must wait for yields, utilization and cash flow to demonstrate an adequate return.
誰滿意應按成果判斷：政府看實際產能與公共投入回報，客戶看供貨與價格，供應商看合約及收款，股東看增量投資報酬。本報告的滿意度分析屬利益推論，不是民調或各方已表態支持。
Stakeholder satisfaction should be judged by outcomes: governments seek operating capacity and returns on public support; customers seek supply and acceptable pricing; vendors seek contracts and payment; shareholders seek incremental investment returns. This assessment is an inference about interests, not a survey or evidence of expressed support.
二 已確認事實與待查證項目
2 Confirmed Facts and Unverified Items
| 項目 Item | 證據與狀態 Evidence and status |
| 亞利桑那州 Arizona | 台積電官網公布累計2,650億美元；州政府稱擴建後規模為10座晶圓廠、2座封裝廠及研發中心。[1–2] TSMC states USD 265bn; the state describes 10 wafer fabs, two packaging facilities and an R&D center after expansion. |
| 德州 Texas | 媒體引述消息人士稱正評估多廠園區，尚待公司核定地點、廠數、製程與預算。[4] Reported multi-fab campus under evaluation; location, fab count, processes and budget remain unconfirmed. |
| 5,000億美元 USD 500bn | TIME逐字稿記錄川普對台灣晶片公司的說法，未明示公司名稱、州別及期程。[3] TIME records Trump’s statement about a Taiwanese chip company without specifying its name, state or schedule. |
| Terafab | 馬斯克稱自行建造與營運，台積電可能承租部分廠區；未證實台積電主導或出資。[5] Musk says his companies will build and operate it; a possible TSMC sublease does not establish TSMC ownership or funding. |
台積電官網將原有六座晶圓廠與2026年7月宣布新增廠區分開敘述，州政府則以擴建後十廠總規模表達。兩者都指向亞利桑那州，不應把十廠直接改列為德州計畫。
TSMC’s website distinguishes six existing planned fabs from additional facilities announced in July 2026, while the state describes a ten-fab expanded program. Both refer to Arizona; the ten-fab figure should not be relabeled as a Texas plan.
| 情境 Scenario | 全美總额 Total US | 新增額 Increment |
| 已公布計畫 Announced program | 2,650億 / USD 265bn | — |
| 全美提高至5,000億 Total US reaches USD 500bn | 5,000億 / USD 500bn | 2,350億 / USD 235bn |
| 德州另外投入5,000億 Texas adds USD 500bn | 至少7,650億 / At least USD 765bn | 5,000億 / USD 500bn |
情境差額是算術推算，不是新增預算公告；也未證實與既有投資及台美企業投資安排之間的加總方式。
The scenario increments are arithmetic, not announced budgets. Their aggregation with existing commitments and broader Taiwan–US investment arrangements has not been established.
三 誰受惠及受惠的條件
3 Beneficiaries and Conditions
| 對象 Stakeholder | 取得利益 Potential gain | 成立條件 Condition |
| 美國政府 US government | 產能 就業 供應韌性 Capacity, jobs, supply resilience |
工廠量產及公共成本可控 Operating fabs and controlled public costs |
| 地方政府 Local government | 產業聚落 未來稅基 Clusters and future tax base |
淨收益超過基建與優惠成本 Net benefits exceed infrastructure and incentives |
| 台積電 TSMC | 客戶成長 產能分散 Customer growth and diversification |
價格 良率 利用率支撐回報 Pricing, yields and utilization support returns |
| 晶片客戶 Chip customers | 供貨來源與交期保障 Supply options and delivery assurance |
技術與成本可接受 Acceptable technology and cost |
| 工程設備商 Contractors and tool vendors | 建廠裝機與服務收入 Construction, tools and services |
正式訂單 驗收 收款 Orders, acceptance and payment |
| 材料廠務商 Materials and facility vendors | 持續消耗與維運收入 Recurring materials and operating services |
認證及實際投片量 Qualification and actual wafer starts |
| 員工與教育 Employees and training | 職缺 技能及培訓需求 Jobs, skills and training demand |
長期營運 在地人才參與 Long-term operation and local participation |
| 股東 Shareholders | 獲利與企業價值 Earnings and enterprise value |
投資報酬高於資金成本 Returns exceed the cost of capital |
建設期的主要收益來自工程、設備與公共設施。量產後，材料、耗材、維修與測試才可能形成穩定收入。下游AI伺服器與雲端服務的收益，則取決於其自身客戶與付費需求。
During construction, engineering, equipment and infrastructure account for the main opportunities. After production ramps, materials, consumables, maintenance and testing may generate recurring revenue. AI servers and cloud services depend on their own customers and paid demand.
供應商收入增加不等於股東立即受惠。供應商可能在設備驗收後認列收入，而台積電仍承担折舊、試產與閒置產能成本。當地居民也可能先面對租金、交通與公共服務壓力，再取得就業收益。
Vendor revenue growth does not imply an immediate shareholder benefit. Suppliers may recognize revenue after equipment acceptance while TSMC still bears depreciation, ramp costs and underutilization. Residents may face housing, traffic and public-service pressures before sharing employment benefits.
四 潛在供應鏈與商機證據
4 Potential Supply Chain and Evidence
以下公司按公開產品能力或既有布局列示，並非德州專案得標名單。每家公司的實際收入仍須以採購、認證、委外分工與交付合約確認。
The companies below are listed by public product capabilities or existing operations, not as Texas contract winners. Revenue exposure must be verified through procurement, qualification, outsourcing allocation and delivery contracts.
| 環節 Segment | 代表 Representative | 收益機制 Revenue mechanism |
| 微影 Lithography | ASML [9] | EUV與DUV設備 服務及升級 EUV/DUV systems, support and upgrades |
| 製程設備 Process tools | Applied Materials [10] Lam Research [11] |
沉積 蝕刻 材料工程及零件 Deposition, etch, materials engineering and parts |
| 工程與廠務 Engineering and facilities | 通過審查的EPC及系統商 Qualified EPC and system contractors |
施工 無塵室 機電 水處理 Construction, cleanrooms, MEP and water systems |
| 封装與測試 Packaging and test | 台積電內部及外部封測伙伴 TSMC and external OSAT partners |
以實際委外範圍為準 Depends on the actual outsourcing scope |
| AI系統 AI systems | 鴻海 Foxconn 緯創 Wistron [12–13] |
依下游訂單製造板卡與系統 Boards and systems driven by downstream orders |
| 電力與冷卻 Power and cooling | 台達 Delta [14] Eaton GE Vernova [12] |
配電 電源 冷卻及能源設備 Distribution, power, cooling and energy equipment |
| 光通訊 Optical connectivity | Coherent Corning Lumentum [12] | 由AI網路與系統需求帶動 Demand driven by AI networks and systems |
封裝是整體交付的重要環節，但增加晶圓產能不保證每家封測廠都取得訂單。台積電自行擴大封裝，既可能帶動合作，也可能保留更多內部製程。日月光高雄擴建可證明其AI封裝投資方向，不能證明德州合約。[2,15]
Packaging matters to final delivery, but more wafer capacity does not guarantee orders for every packaging provider. TSMC’s internal expansion may create partnerships or retain more work internally. ASE’s Kaohsiung expansion demonstrates its AI packaging strategy, not a Texas contract. [2,15]
NVIDIA已公布鴻海休士頓布局及緯創Fort Worth工廠開幕。這些既有投資可能與未來晶圓園區形成互補，不能倒推為尚未核定德州晶圓廠造成的收益。[12–13]
NVIDIA has disclosed Foxconn’s Houston manufacturing plans and the opening of Wistron’s Fort Worth plant. These investments could complement a future wafer campus, but cannot be attributed to an unapproved Texas fab program. [12–13]
五 誰出錢與誰承擔最終風險
5 Funding Providers and Ultimate Risk Bearers
| 方式 Funding source | 現金提供者 Cash provider | 最終責任 Ultimate responsibility |
| 自有資金 Internal cash | 台積電 TSMC | 公司及股東承擔機會成本 Company and shareholders bear opportunity cost |
| 債券與借款 Debt | 債券投資人 銀行 Bond investors and banks |
台積電支付本金與利息 TSMC repays principal and interest |
| 客戶預付款 Customer advances | 晶片客戶 Chip customers | 台積電履約 客戶先占用資金 TSMC delivers; customers commit cash early |
| 政府補助 Grants | 公共財政 Public budgets | 納稅人出資 企業遵守條款 Taxpayers fund support; firms meet conditions |
| 稅額抵減 Tax credits | 企業先支出 政府減稅 Firm spends first; government reduces tax |
公共財政減少收入 Public revenue is forgone |
| 信用保證 Credit guarantees | 銀行放款 Bank lenders | 借款人先負責 保證人依條款分擔 Borrower pays first; guarantor shares eligible losses |
| 合資股權 JV equity | 合資股東 JV investors | 按股權及合約承擔損益 Risks and returns follow equity and contracts |
主要資本責任仍在投資企業。客戶保量長約可降低需求風險，但未必提供建廠現金；預付款屬交貨義務，不宜再列為新增利潤。貸款保證則是或有責任，不能當作政府已支付的投資款。
The investing company retains the primary capital responsibility. Volume commitments can reduce demand risk without funding construction. Advances create delivery obligations and should not be counted again as incremental profit. Guarantees are contingent obligations, not government cash already invested.
亞利桑那州原先三廠、超過650億美元計畫，2024年美國商務部公布最高66億美元直接補助及最高50億美元擬議貸款，補助按里程碑撥付。這些條件不能直接套用於德州或新增投資。[6]
For Arizona’s original three-fab program exceeding USD 65 billion, the US Commerce Department announced up to USD 6.6 billion in direct funding and up to USD 5 billion in proposed loans in 2024, with grants tied to milestones. These terms cannot automatically be applied to Texas or further expansion. [6]
2026年1月美國商務部列示台灣企業至少2,500億美元直接投資，以及台灣至少2,500億美元信用保證。這是跨企業與產業安排，並非台積電取得5,000億美元現金，也未證實與其既有承諾的完整加總關係。[7]
In January 2026, the Commerce Department described at least USD 250 billion of direct investment by Taiwanese enterprises and at least USD 250 billion of Taiwanese credit guarantees. This is a multi-company, multi-industry arrangement, not USD 500 billion of cash for TSMC; full aggregation with existing commitments is not established. [7]
六 財務承受能力與投資回收門檻
6 Financial Capacity and Return Requirements
台積電2026年第二季公布現金與有價證券約1,100億美元，全年全球資本支出指引為600至640億美元。流動性雄厚不代表所有現金均可用於單一園區，仍須支持營運、全球投資、股利及償債。[8]
TSMC reported about USD 110 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of Q2 2026, with global annual capital expenditure guidance of USD 60–64 billion. Strong liquidity does not mean all cash is available for one campus; operations, global investment, dividends and debt service also require funding. [8]
| 新增投資 Increment | 10年平均年度支出 10-year average | 15年平均年度支出 15-year average |
| 2,350億 USD 235bn | 235億 USD 23.5bn | 156.7億 USD 15.67bn |
| 5,000億 USD 500bn | 500億 USD 50bn | 333.3億 USD 33.33bn |
新增2,350億美元若十年平均執行，每年約相當於2026年全球資本支出指引的37%至39%；若德州另投5,000億美元，比例約78%至83%。此為規模比較，未假設所有支出均可直接加到現有年度預算。
Spreading USD 235 billion over ten years produces annual spending equivalent to approximately 37–39% of 2026 global capex guidance. A separate USD 500 billion Texas program would equal about 78–83%. These are scale comparisons, not additions to an established annual budget.
融資示例：若新增借款500億美元、平均年利率5%，年度利息為25億美元，尚未計本金償還。這只是示例，未假設台積電已決定此借款額或利率。
Financing illustration: USD 50 billion of additional debt at a 5% annual rate creates USD 2.5 billion of yearly interest before principal repayment. This is an example, not an assumed TSMC financing decision.
以下回收壓力測試假設投資於起點支付，之後20年產生固定年度自由現金流，折現率10%，期末殘值為零。營收換算另假設自由現金流率30%。所有假設均為本報告模型，並非公司財測。
The return stress test assumes investment at the outset, followed by constant annual free cash flow for 20 years, a 10% discount rate and no terminal value. Revenue equivalents assume a 30% free cash flow margin. All are modeling assumptions, not company guidance.
| 投資額 Investment | 年度所需FCF Required annual FCF | 30% FCF率對應營收 Revenue at 30% |
| 2,350億 USD 235bn | 約276億 USD 27.60bn | 約920億 USD 92.01bn |
| 5,000億 USD 500bn | 約587億 USD 58.73bn | 約1,958億 USD 195.77bn |
計算式為年度FCF＝投資額×10%÷［1－（1.10）⁻²⁰］。這是淨現值約為零的門檻，不是專案IRR或回本年數。實際應改用分期投資、逐年爬坡、設備更新、稅款及營運資金模型。
Required annual FCF = investment × 10% ÷ [1 − (1.10)⁻²⁰]. This is a zero-NPV threshold, not a project IRR or payback estimate. A real model must use staged expenditure, annual ramp-up, replacement capex, taxes and working capital.
七 誰滿意及成功標準
7 Stakeholder Satisfaction and Success Criteria
| 對象 Stakeholder | 滿意的成果 Satisfactory outcome | 可能的衝突 Potential conflict |
| 美國政府 US government | 實際量產 供應安全 Actual production and supply security |
宣布大 投產慢 Large announcements, delayed operation |
| 地方政府 Local government | 淨就業及未來稅收 Net jobs and future revenue |
基建與優惠負擔過大 Excess infrastructure and incentive costs |
| 台積電管理層 TSMC management | 客戶成長 良率及獲利 Customer growth, yields and profits |
成本 人才 管理複雜度 Cost, talent and management complexity |
| 股東 Shareholders | 每股獲利 現金流 投資回報 EPS, cash flow and returns |
營收增加但報酬下降 Higher revenue but lower returns |
| 客戶 Customers | 交期 供貨 品質 價格 Delivery, supply, quality and price |
高成本與長期保量責任 Higher prices and volume obligations |
| 供應商 Suppliers | 訂單 驗收與收款 Orders, acceptance and payment |
延工 改設計 延付 Delays, redesigns and late payment |
| 銀行 Lenders | 本息正常償還 Timely principal and interest |
槓桿與現金流風險 Leverage and cash-flow risk |
| 居民 Residents | 本地工作與生活改善 Local jobs and improved living conditions |
房租 交通 資源壓力 Housing, traffic and resource pressures |
政府追求製造產能與就業，客戶追求可接受價格的穩定供貨，股東追求資本報酬。三者可以一致，但需要分擔成本的價格機制、可執行的訂單承諾與合理公共支援。
Governments seek capacity and jobs, customers seek reliable supply at acceptable prices, and shareholders seek capital returns. Alignment requires pricing that shares costs, enforceable purchase commitments and proportionate public support.
台積電預估整體海外廠爬坡將使未來數年毛利率初期稀釋約2至3個百分點，後期可能達3至4個百分點。這是整體海外布局展望，不應全部歸因於德州，也不能直接等同專案虧損。[8]
TSMC projects that overseas fab ramps may dilute consolidated gross margin by about 2–3 percentage points initially and 3–4 points later over the coming years. This concerns its overall overseas footprint, not Texas alone, and does not by itself imply a project loss. [8]
八 產業發展與主要瓶頸
8 Industry Development and Bottlenecks
產業聚落必須由晶圓、封裝、記憶體、材料、系統與公用設施共同形成。台積電邏輯晶圓擴產不代表HBM同步增加；AI系統在美組裝，也不代表全部零件都在美製造。
An industrial cluster requires wafers, packaging, memory, materials, systems and infrastructure to develop together. More TSMC logic capacity does not automatically add HBM capacity. US system assembly also does not establish US origin for every component.
| 層次 Layer | 發展機會 Opportunity | 未補齊的限制 Constraint |
| 晶圓 Wafer | 先進邏輯晶片供應 Advanced logic supply |
良率與利用率 Yields and utilization |
| 封裝測試 Packaging and test | 多晶粒整合与產品交付 Multi-die integration and delivery |
封裝能力與驗證 Packaging capacity and validation |
| 記憶體基板 Memory and substrates | AI系統整合需求 AI integration demand |
配套零件供應 Supporting component availability |
| 材料維修 Materials and service | 在地庫存與維護 Local inventory and maintenance |
認證與服務反應 Qualification and response time |
| 伺服器網路 Servers and networks | 板卡 機櫃 儲存 互連 Boards, racks, storage and links |
系統驗證与其他零件 System validation and other components |
| 電力冷卻 Power and cooling | 工廠与AIDC運轉 Fab and AIDC operation |
接電日期與冷卻性能 Power availability and cooling performance |
| 人才應用 Talent and applications | 技能培育及付費AI服務 Skills and paid AI services |
人才缺口与終端需求 Skill gaps and end-user demand |
NVIDIA的最高5,000億美元美國AI基礎設施生產安排是另一口徑，包含合作夥伴及系統製造。它可能與晶圓投資在供應鏈上相關，但不能直接相加，否則同一設備、零件或產品價值可能被重複計算。[12–13]
NVIDIA’s up-to-USD 500 billion US AI infrastructure production program is a separate measure covering partners and systems manufacturing. It may connect to fab investment through the supply chain, but the figures cannot simply be added because equipment, components or output may be counted twice. [12–13]
發展較健康的路徑是依訂單分期裝機，讓封裝、材料、電力與人才同步到位。若只追求廠房數量，可能形成設備完成但配套不足的低利用率產能。
A healthier development path stages tool installation against orders while coordinating packaging, materials, power and workforce readiness. Maximizing fab count alone can create equipped capacity that remains underutilized because supporting resources are missing.
九 台灣的收益與機會成本
9 Taiwan Benefits and Opportunity Costs
海外擴張對台灣的淨影響，取決於它增加全球需求，或移轉原有在台活動。台灣工程、材料與維修服務可跟隨客戶增加海外收入；企業同時需承擔赴美設點、在地法規、人才與履約成本。
The net effect on Taiwan depends on whether overseas expansion adds global demand or shifts existing Taiwanese activity. Engineering, materials and service firms can grow overseas revenue with customers, while also bearing establishment, regulatory, workforce and fulfillment costs.
潛在成本包括稀缺工程與管理人才分配至海外、供應商資金需求增加，以及信用保證若發生違約所帶來的或有財政負擔。國內投資是否受到擠壓，應依實際資本支出、職缺及研發活動追蹤，不能僅憑海外宣布金額判斷。
Potential costs include deploying scarce engineering and management talent overseas, higher supplier funding needs, and contingent fiscal losses if guaranteed loans default. Any crowding-out of domestic investment should be measured through actual capex, jobs and R&D activity, not overseas announcements alone.
台積電於2026年第二季法說會同時表示，未來數年在台灣建設13座先進製程及先進封裝廠。這提供持續國內投資的依據，但仍應追蹤實際進度與國內外產能分配。[8]
At its Q2 2026 earnings call, TSMC also stated that it was building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fabs in Taiwan over the coming years. This supports ongoing domestic investment, while execution and geographic capacity allocation still require monitoring. [8]
十 AI Server AIDC與教育專案的切入點
10 Opportunities for AI Server AIDC and Training Projects
| 方向 Direction | 可交付工作 Deliverable | 先確認 Evidence needed |
| AI Server與網通 AI servers and networking |
零件 測試 備品及維修 Components, testing, spares and repairs |
機型 料號 認證 採購量 Models, part numbers, qualification and volume |
| AIDC整廠 AIDC engineering |
供電 冷卻 網路与維運整合 Power, cooling, network and operations |
客戶需求 接電 付款能力 Customer demand, power and payment capacity |
| 液冷與能源 Cooling and energy |
CDU 配電 控制及維護 CDUs, distribution, controls and maintenance |
性能 平台相容 服務邊界 Performance, compatibility and service scope |
| 人才培訓 Workforce training |
半導體 廠務 伺服器 液冷課程 Semiconductor, facility, server and cooling courses |
職缺 技能缺口 培訓預算 Jobs, skill gaps and training budgets |
| 供應商海外服務 Supplier overseas service |
交付管理 在地維修與備品 Delivery, local repairs and spares |
資格 合約 保固與責任 Qualification, contracts, warranty and liability |
優先選擇已有採購需求且可驗證交付能力的項目。AI系統測試、液冷整合、備品維運與人才培訓，可依既有工廠及客戶需求發展；若以尚未核定的德州晶圓廠作主要營收前提，應保留情境與延期風險。
Prioritize demonstrated procurement needs and verifiable delivery capability. System testing, cooling integration, spares, operations and training can build on existing facilities and customers. Revenue plans tied to an unapproved Texas fab must retain scenario and delay risk.
十一 投資管理與待查證清單
11 Investment Governance and Verification
建議採分期核准與分期裝機。土地與公用設施可預留擴建空間，設備投資則依客戶承諾、良率、利用率及資金能力逐步投入。總預算必須列出廠房、設備、封裝、人才、試產、營運資金與預備金邊界。
Use staged approval and equipment installation. Land and utilities can allow future expansion, while tool spending follows customer commitments, yields, utilization and funding capacity. Budget scope must separately identify buildings, equipment, packaging, workforce, ramp costs, working capital and contingency.
| 查證項目 Verification item | 需要取得的證據 Evidence required |
| 投資範圍 Investment scope | 公司公告 董事會核准 地點 廠數与期程 Company disclosure, board approval, sites, fab count and schedule |
| 需求保障 Demand support | 客戶訂單 保量條款 價格 取消責任 Orders, volume commitments, pricing and cancellation liability |
| 資金組合 Funding mix | 逐年付款表 債務期限 補助資格與撥付 Annual payments, debt maturities, incentive eligibility and timing |
| 公用設施 Utilities | 接電 用水 備援 廢水與許可 Power, water, redundancy, wastewater and permits |
| 產能與回報 Capacity and returns | 製程 良率 投片量 FCF與分期NPV Processes, yields, wafer starts, FCF and staged NPV |
| 供應鏈訂單 Supply-chain orders | 採購單 得標公告 認證与服務合約 Purchase orders, awards, qualification and service contracts |
2026年10月15日法說會是下一個可觀察的公司說明節點，德州布局、Terafab合作、資本支出與毛利率均為市場關注議題。本文資料截止時尚未發生，不預先推定其結論。[16]
The October 15, 2026 earnings call is the next observable company disclosure point. Texas, Terafab, capex and margins are topics of market interest. It had not occurred at this report’s cut-off, so no outcome is assumed. [16]
目前可採用的決策是：以已公布2,650億美元為事實基準，以全美累計5,000億美元作擴張情境，德州金額另待確認。企業商機以正式需求與合約推進，投資評估則以增量自由現金流與公共投入回報驗證。
The current decision framework is to anchor facts on the announced USD 265 billion program, use USD 500 billion of total US investment as an expansion scenario, and leave Texas allocation unconfirmed. Commercial opportunities should follow documented demand and contracts; investment decisions should be tested against incremental free cash flow and returns on public support.
十二 資料來源與計算說明
12 Sources and Calculation Notes
下列來源於本次研究查閱。公司及政府資料用於確認公告與能力；媒體資料用於標示傳聞與當事人說法。公司產品頁僅支持能力，不證明德州訂單。
The following sources were reviewed for this research. Company and government materials establish announcements and capabilities; news sources identify reported plans and public statements. Product pages establish capabilities, not Texas contracts.
[1] TSMC Arizona
https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm
[2] Arizona Commerce Authority 2026 07 16
https://azcommerce-prod.azurewebsites.net/news-events/news/2026/7/tsmc-announcement/
[3] TIME Trump interview transcript 2026 10 01
https://ca.time.com/donald-trump-2026-interview-transcript/
[4] Bloomberg report republished by Insurance Journal 2026 10 02
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2026/10/02/887682.htm
[5] Reuters Musk comments 2026 10 07
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/intel-keep-working-musks-terafab-chipmaking-venture-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-10-07/
[6] US Commerce TSMC Arizona CHIPS award 2024 11
https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2024/11/biden-harris-administration-announces-chips-incentives-award-tsmc
[7] US Commerce Taiwan trade and investment fact sheet 2026 01 15
https://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-restoring-american-semiconductor-manufacturing-leadership
[8] TSMC Q2 2026 earnings materials and transcript
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2
[9] ASML products and services
https://www.asml.com/en/products
[10] Applied Materials semiconductor products
https://www.appliedmaterials.com/us/en/semiconductor/products.html
[11] Lam Research products
[12] NVIDIA US manufacturing partners
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/made-in-usa/
[13] NVIDIA Wistron Fort Worth opening 2026 07 21
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/wistron-manufacturing-texas/
[14] Delta data center solutions
https://www.deltaww.com/en-US/solutions/data-centers
[15] ASE Kaohsiung expansion 2026 03 11
https://www.aseglobal.com/press-room/ase-breaks-ground-on-new-high-tech-facility-in-kaohsiung
[16] CNA upcoming earnings call 2026 10 09
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202610090086.aspx
金額換算：1 billion美元＝10億美元。支出平均數未反映建設高峰；FCF門檻未納入分期支出、延遲與殘值。所有情境計算均以未四捨五入數字計算後顯示，且不屬台積電財測。
Unit conversion: USD 1 billion equals 10 億美元. Average spending does not reflect construction peaks; FCF thresholds do not incorporate staged spending, delays or terminal value. Scenario figures are calculated before rounding and are not TSMC forecasts.